I S T H E W O R L D L O S I N G
T H E F I G H T?
Almost every year since 1995, world leaders have met in person to discuss the climate crisis at a meeting known as the Conference of the Parties (COP).
At COP21 in Paris in 2015, countries agreed to try to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels to curb the climate crisis. This landmark global accord became known as the Paris Agreement.
Since the Paris Agreement, there has been much greater clarity in terms of the science of the dangers of exceeding 1.5C [as opposed to 2C] of warming.
While many countries have pledged to eliminate net carbon emissions by 2050, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says …..
“emissions must be cut by at least 40% by the end of the decade to keep temperatures in check.”
According to the graphs provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration,
we are NOT winning this fight as of now.
According to this graph, since 1995, when the World’s attention was raised to the Climate Crisis, the US was able to bring the energy production-related CO2 emissions DOWN BY ABOUT 10% IN 24 YEARS (1995-2019).
- achieved by the substitution of coal with natural gas when burning fossil fuels to generate electricity, as well as by non-carbon producing energy sources: Solar, Wind, and hydroelectricity.
Going with this speed it would seem to be impossible to bring the CO2 emissions down 40% in 9 YEARS remaining till the end of this decade (see above).
The speed of reducing CO2 emissions would have to be (4 x 24/9 ) 10.7 times higher in the next 9 years vs. the previous 24 years.
Using Non-Carbon generating forms of energy in the production of electricity increased in the same 14 years (1995 – 2019) by only 7% (from about 32% to 39%)
The other 3% decrease in energy-related production of CO2 must have come from the mentioned above substitution of coal with natural gas while burning the fossil fuels to generate electricity.
All the described above sources of energy are producing, as the result, only one form of energy – ELECTRICITY.
Electricity is, of course, the most efficient form of energy to be distributed for a plurality of needs, production in factories, and production of human creature conditions, like light and microclimate, like air conditioning and food freezing.
The paradox is in that the more electricity is used for the current needs, the more our planet’s climate is destroyed by trapping the heat in the atmosphere by CO2 as a by-product of electricity generation, the more additional electricity will be needed to create the microclimate for humans via air-conditioning – the more heat will be generated by the destruction of our planet’s atmosphere and so on … CREATING A VICIOUS CYCLE.
The Answer To This Vicious Cycle is, of course, in the Carbon-Free Electricity Generation
- Eliminating carbon emissions from energy production processes altogether;
- That includes eliminating the human-caused Methane emissions, caused by drilling and fracking for oil and gas.
What we believe all that above means
Considering that approximately 29% of all pollution comes from transportation and another 29% from electricity generation;
Considering the need for 10X times faster speed of moving towards Carbon-Free Electricity Generation within the next decade, compared to the last 25 years since 1995 when the danger of Climate Change became publicly known;
Seeing that decline of CO2 production by transportation in the same 10x times is not feasible by simply moving to electrical vehicles with the current speed;
(from the page: Automobiles) “… in 2040 electrical automobiles will still make up less than 33% of all the cars on the road”;
“Electrical Automobile CO2 Production requirement is presently 35% of Combustion Engine automobile CO2 Production”.
Doing some calculations
88% of CO2 emitting combustion engine automobiles will still be on the road by the end of the decade.
(in 3 decades, by 2040, 67%; accounting for the proportional decline from 97% now; 30% decline in 30 years; 10% decline on 10 years)
The remaining 12% of electrical automobiles will still effectively require CO2 emissions for their electricity production in the proportion of 23% of the CO2 production effect from the same number of combustion engine automobiles.
(Assuming that (hopefully) electricity Productin will be Carbon-Free by 2050: 35% effect to be 0% in 30 years; about 12% in 10 years; 35% – 12% – 23%)
The effective emission decrease from transportation in one decade will be only 7.2%
(10%- 12% x 23%= (10 – 2.76)% = 7.24%)
We Believe The Solution Is To Be Found In The Following 2 Parallel Directions
1. The deficiency in the speed of moving towards Carbon-Free Transportation must be compensated by a higher speed of moving towards Carbon-Free Electricity generation. That is, the increase in the speed of moving there must be higher than 10X.
Using the words of Elon Musk: “We Have This Handy Fusion Reactor In The Sky Called The Sun“.
2. Parallel to that, additional and alternative methods of increasing the speed of moving towards Carbon-Free Transportation must be utilized.
The calculations of energy savings and a corresponding decline in CO2 production by vehicles utilizing ReWheel devices are described on the page
“Every tonne of CO₂ emissions adds to global warming” https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf